OPINION:
When America sends Patriot or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles to defend our forces or allies abroad, the conversation after is always the same: Can we replace them fast enough?
Last week, the Pentagon signed a $3 billion framework agreement to procure Patriot and THAAD rocket motors. The deal is meant to increase Patriot capacity by three times and THAAD Interceptor production capacity by four. While this is excellent news, we must not stop there.
America’s true defense industrial base challenge is not just about a few cutting-edge missile types. It is about whether we can manufacture all the munitions needed to fight and win a large-scale war.
While certainly important, the number of Patriot interceptors is dwarfed by the number of additional artillery shells, rocket motors and propulsion systems required to fight a major ground war.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States has sent over three million 155 mm rounds to Ukraine. Before the invasion, the U.S. only produced 170,000 155 mm rounds annually. Quick math tells us that’s equivalent to more than 17 years of capacity at those production levels.
The Pentagon’s response to this urgent demand was to begin a significant ramp-up in domestic production, including the goal of producing 100,000 rounds monthly. However, as of March 2026, the U.S. Army had only managed to produce 36,000 rounds monthly.
Wars require massive amounts of conventional artillery and ammunition, far in excess of what America now produces.
Our current defense industrial base is not structured to meet the demands of extended high-intensity conflicts. To restore strategic stability and deterrence, we must invest in expanding and updating our munitions production infrastructure and processes in order to drastically reduce the time needed to produce various types of artillery shells, rockets and missiles.
Defense production in the U.S. has been optimized for peacetime operations. While this made sense before the large-scale conflicts of today, such a model is ill-suited for the demands of modern great-power competition.
The problem is not that the United States lacks the industrial capacity to ramp up production. But the time has come where we must incentivize and accelerate the introduction of new manufacturers.
Modern manufacturing technologies are light years ahead of where they were during the Cold War. We should utilize these technological advances and update our manufacturing processes to reduce the time needed to produce various types of ordnance.
We must also consider ways to improve the munitions qualification process by reducing unnecessary costs, bureaucracy and time constraints, which can often be measured in years.
This does not mean that the U.S. should favor new competitors over established firms. The Defense Department should work with established manufacturers to optimize production processes and expand capacity.
At the same time, any company that can help satisfy the demand for energetics, propellants, rocket motors and complete munitions should be considered a valuable contributor to our national security. The more manufacturers that are capable of producing large quantities of defense products, the more robust the industrial base will be.
A strong and resilient industrial base is critical to strategic stability and deterrence.
The Pentagon and Congress should be commended for their efforts to replenish and expand America’s advanced air defense missiles. But we must not forget that far more conventional artillery shells, rockets and other forms of propulsion must be produced.
Even more importantly, Congress and the Pentagon should be asking themselves whether America can rapidly replenish its allies’ conventional artillery while replacing its own stocks. They must invest in expanding America’s industrial base capabilities and ensuring that these are optimized for great-power competition.
America’s adversaries will be evaluating our forces and our industrial capacity. They will be measuring how quickly we can produce new equipment and munitions — not only for our armed forces, but also for our allies.
The next conflict will be won by the side that has the most sophisticated equipment and can produce more of it. To ensure that America maintains its military superiority, we must invest in new manufacturers that will allow us to replenish our vast arsenal of various conventional and precision-guided missiles, rockets and artillery shells.
The U.S. industrial base is the backbone of America’s national security policy. And whether we can truly fulfill our security commitments will be decided not just on the battlefield, but in the factories.
• Will Edwards is the co-founder and chief executive officer of Firehawk Defense, an end-to-end energetics and propulsion company building solid rocket motors and all-up rounds faster and more cost effectively.
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