OPINION:
The Democrats had a pretty good night Tuesday. They should be happy. Yet despite appearances, the Republicans also had a pretty good night: They received a timely and urgent warning about the path they are traveling and its likely terminal point.
Most important, the American experiment had a pretty good night. The anxiety of millions of citizens was channeled into useful, peaceful disagreement.
That is not to say everyone was happy with the messages they received. After each election, there are always predictions of apocalypse on the losing side and nirvana on the winning side.
People were interested in these podcasts
The reality is, of course, considerably less precise. The simplest and most enduring rule of elections in the United States is that the winners are usually disappointed and the losers are usually pleasantly surprised. Both are always quite certain that victory will bring significant and enduring changes to the nation.
Over time, the winners learn that the system is specifically designed to prevent significant changes from being made within a single election cycle or even a single generation. Consequently, they are disappointed. The losers also learn this and are pleasantly surprised that the changes they feared are less egregious and enduring than initially anticipated.
It is difficult to remember now, but in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 national elections, many Democrats were talking about what they would do with their newfound majority. Defund the police. Kill the filibuster. Pass voting rights and pro-union legislation. Make college free for everyone. Pack the Supreme Court. Confiscate guns. Impose racial reparations.
None of that happened.
The irreducible reality is that federal policies change within a fairly narrow range because voters, for the most part, despise sudden alterations.
In the wake of any electoral setback, it is tempting for those who voted for the losers to spiral a bit into depression and despair. Similarly, winners usually get carried away and interpret the results as a mandate to do whatever they want. Both should resist those impulses.
It is essential to recognize what politics and elections are and what they are not. They are not about the soul of the nation. They are not about healing anything. They are not about some grand statement about the arc of justice or whatever. All that is the province of religion, philosophy, poetry, literature and art.
Politics and elections are simply about how we as a society decide who gets to use the coercive power of the state to encourage some activities and discourage or outlaw others. That is it; that is all.
In the current moment, all those who voted for the Democrats will expect the new Congress to do something to rein in Team Trump with respect to the conflict in Iran, the economy, immigration enforcement and — more nebulously — the president’s tone, temperament and vibe.
They will be disappointed when they discover that Congress cannot or will not do much. Oversight and investigations quickly turn into thin gruel. So the general dissatisfaction with Team Trump will flow directly into the 2028 campaign, which has already begun.
For the next two years, though, the administration will keep trying to finish its agenda items and run through the tape as best it can in an environment of waning influence and staffing challenges.
As part of that, Team Trump must at some point reckon with the fact that a significant chunk of those who previously voted for it chose an alternative path.
In retrospect, the original sin of this campaign cycle was the conflict in Iran. It would have been better had the administration sought approval before acting there. It chose not to and so owned all the consequences that flowed from that decision.
The redistricting effort was a failure. The Republicans had some sketchy candidates, and the small-donor effort failed entirely.
Still, regrets are a sucker’s game. The only thing any of us can do is move forward. Certainly, that is the only option the administration has at the moment.
Heading into the 2028 presidential campaign, we are left with a divided government. The Democrats need an agenda beyond opposing Mr. Trump. The Republicans need to discern what it means to be a Republican outside the long shadow of the president.
It might be helpful for both sides to remember that the presidents whose parties were wiped out in the wave elections of 1994 and 2010 went on to win reelection in 1996 and 2012.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
Follow the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.