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Threat Status for Friday, July 10, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

China is quietly expanding its economic reach across Russian-occupied Ukraine.

… Actual production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine could be years away.

… President Trump’s new Qatari-made Air Force One may lack the same defensive countermeasures as the old presidential plane.

… That could explain why Mr. Trump used the older aircraft to fly home after this week’s NATO summit in Turkey. The White House said the switch was “misdirection” because of potential threats. 

… Israel reportedly shared intel with the U.S. about a new Iranian assassination plot targeting Mr. Trump.

… Tehran is dragging its Persian Gulf neighbors back into war amid the unraveling of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

… The Pentagon released its fourth batch of UFO files Friday morning. 

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth canceled the suspension of eight Apache pilots grounded after a July Fourth beach flyover. 

… Lawmakers warn that artificial intelligence-driven misinformation could threaten November’s midterm elections.

… And Canada says eight countries will join its international defense bank. 

China's economic influence grows in Russian-occupied Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Karansky Quarry in Donetsk, which locals call the “Chinese quarry,” offers a clear example of a growing trend: Chinese companies are helping to build and sustain the occupation economy in parts of Ukraine seized by Russia.

Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak, reporting from Kyiv, delves into the issue and all of its geopolitical implications. At least 17 Chinese companies are, in some form, tied to activity in the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine. Their activities include supplying mining equipment and construction machinery, providing telecommunications and financial services, and supporting transport links and infrastructure.

And here’s the kicker: Beijing has not even formally recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea or its claims over the four additional Ukrainian regions. But on the ground in occupied Ukraine, China is deepening its economic ties to the Kremlin.

Patriot missile production in Ukraine may not start for years

FILE - Ukrainian Air Force's F-16 fighter jets fly over a Patriot Air and Missile Defense System in an undisclosed location in Ukraine, on Aug. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

Here’s the reality behind Mr. Trump’s surprise announcement this week that the U.S. will license Ukraine to make its own Patriot missiles: Actual production in Ukraine could be years away.

And there are a host of reasons for that, reports Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward. For starters, the two primary U.S. defense contractors that make the Patriot system, RTX and Lockheed Martin, have not yet formally partnered with Ukrainian businesses to build production facilities on Ukrainian soil.

Any Ukrainian production lines also would face the same industrial base challenges confronting American weapons production. Here’s one example: Patriot missiles rely on solid rocket motors. As international demand for air defense capabilities has increased, the single U.S. source of ammonium perchlorate — a critical chemical in solid rocket motors — has been squeezed to maximum capacity.

There’s also the fact that any Patriot production facility built in Ukraine would immediately become a high-priority target for Russia.

Air Force cancels more than 100 promotions after testing error

The Pentagon is seen in this aerial view through an airplane window in Washington on Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) ** FILE **

The Air Force scrapped promotions for 135 airmen this week after a testing error led to incorrect scores. Military Correspondent Mike Glenn is tracking this story, which has a silver lining for the other 135 airmen who were initially told they failed the exam but will now advance to the next rank.

Air Force officials explained that they used the wrong answer key for the Specialty Knowledge Test, or SKT. The service then rescored all 2,285 airmen who tested for promotion to technical sergeant using the corrected answer key.

Officials acknowledged how unusual — and painful — the situation is.

“We owe it to those affected to address it immediately,” Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force David R. Wolfe said in a statement. “This is going to be hard for everyone impacted.”

Chinese nuclear-missile test flight passed near Guam

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a long-range ballistic missile bursts out of the sea during a test launched from a Chinese nuclear-powered submarines in the South Pacific on Monday, July 6, 2026. (Li Xiangchao/Xinhua via AP)

There’s still more to unpack from this week’s provocative test flight of a nuclear-capable, submarine-launched Chinese ballistic missile. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz dives into the specific flight path of the missile, which Taiwanese officials say was a JL-2 underwater-launched missile.

Joseph Wu, secretary-general of the Taiwan National Security Council, posted a map of that flight path on social media. It shows the missile was fired from a submarine in coastal waters off the southern Guangdong province coast and flew southeast over the northern tip of the Philippines into the South Pacific.

Along the way, the missile passed south of the U.S. island territory of Guam, then north of the archipelago nation of Palau and near the microstate island of Nauru before landing in the ocean. 

Opinion: Defense production matters as much as weapons innovation

The United States of America and manufacturing the military's weapons illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

There’s little doubt that the Pentagon and its defense industry partners lead the world in weapons innovation. But in the 21st century, that’s only one piece of the battle. The actual manufacturing of those weapons and systems — and the overall strength of America’s defense industrial base — is equally important, if not more so.

Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, the CEO and founder of Iron Liberty Group LLC, explains why in a new column for The Washington Times.

“The lessons from Ukraine, the Middle East and the growing competition with China are becoming increasingly clear,” he writes. “Military strength in the 21st century depends not only on possessing the world’s most advanced weapons but also on the ability to produce, replenish and sustain them at scale.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 14 — Strategic Landpower Dialogue: A Conversation with Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• July 14 — The Fiscal 2027 Defense Budget: How Much is Enough? Brookings Institution

• July 14-17 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Strategy Group

• July 14-15 — Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit, Sen. Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania Republican, U.S. Army War College

• July 15 — The Future of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East, with Rep. Mike Lawler, New York Republican, Hudson Institute 

• July 22 — Expanding U.S. Investment in the Western Hemisphere, Atlantic Council 

• Aug. 4-5 — Air and Space Force Procurement Conference, American Defense Alliance

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.