The midterm elections are seven weeks away and Republicans are poised for a shellacking — at least according to a poll rated among the most accurate in the nation.
The survey of more than a thousand likely voters is so dire for the GOP that its authors say the numbers predict nothing short of a “blue wave” in November.
“The only question is whether — and where — Democrats will be able to ride it,” said Nate Cohn, a polling analyst for The New York Times, which conducted the poll with Siena College from Sept. 8 to 13.
The Siena/NYT poll, considered one of the most on-target election surveys, found that Mr. Trump’s stubbornly low approval rating is dragging down the entire Republican Party as it battles to hold onto the majorities in the House and Senate.
Mr. Trump’s approval reached only the high 30s among likely voters. A majority — 52% — said they strongly disapprove of Mr. Trump.
Most of the discontent stems from high prices, healthcare costs, housing affordability, and the soaring cost of gasoline that is tied to the unpopular war in Iran.
While the president is not on the November ballot, voter discontent is affecting GOP candidates overall.
Democratic Congressional candidates surged 8 points ahead of Republican candidates in the poll.
While not a measure of specific House and Senate races, the generic figure signals the direction of voter enthusiasm, and the momentum clearly lies with Democrats.
Democrats are crushing the GOP when it comes to voter trust on nearly every major issue in the poll.
Voters favored Democrats by 8 points over the GOP to handle the cost of living, by 24 points on healthcare, and by 7 points on both the economy and foreign wars.
Voters even favored Democrats by 7 points on immigration, an issue that helped Mr. Trump win in 2024 and arguably the biggest success story of his second term.
Republicans came out ahead just once. They outpolled Democrats by two points among voters asked who they trust to handle artificial intelligence.
The GOP’s sagging favorability is echoing through key Congressional races.
A new poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas released Tuesday by Mason-Dixon/Telemundo found Democrat James Talarico beating Republican Ken Paxton 46% to 43%.
The unusually close race in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly four decades has forced Mr. Trump and Senate Republicans to divert millions in campaign dollars away from traditional battleground states to help the GOP hold onto the Texas seat.
Various polls also show Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina and Maine — all seats currently held by Republicans.
The outlook for House Republicans is even more dire. Analysts predict Democrats will flip around ten seats total to win the majority, picking up seats in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa and New York.
House Republicans said they aren’t panicking.
Vice President J.D. Vance was “in a great mood,” as he huddled with rank-and-file lawmakers Tuesday at the GOP’s campaign headquarters near the Capitol.
Mr. Vance gave a talk to “rile up the troops” ahead of the election, according to those present.
He urged lawmakers to show voters a clear contrast between the GOP’s policies and the Democrats, who have been dragged further left by socialist candidates.
Republicans do expect to pick up some seats thanks to nationwide redistricting that added several GOP-leaning districts.
“We are convinced we are going to win,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, said after the meeting with Mr. Vance.
A GOP victory in November would defy history. The president’s party typically loses in the midterm election.
Contact the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.