Who gets hit hardest by Isaias? Forecasters point to Mississippi-to-Panhandle coast

Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the Gulf on Wednesday and is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, with the coast from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle facing the worst of the storm surge when it strikes late Friday or early Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.

Isaias is the ninth named storm of the season, which began with the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 1966. None of the previous eight storms reached hurricane strength.

As of 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the center of the storm was 540 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving east-northeast at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, USA Today reported.

Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan said the greatest storm surge concern is the area from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, where 5 to 7 feet of water above ground level is possible near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast. Initial hurricane center guidance showed surge of more than 6 feet possible from the Mississippi-Louisiana line into parts of Mobile Bay, and where Florida’s Panhandle meets the peninsula south of Tallahassee, from Alligator Point to Horseshoe Beach.

The heaviest rain is forecast for the same stretch. AccuWeather forecast 8 to 12 inches across southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, near where the storm makes landfall. The hurricane center forecasts 3 to 6 inches from Friday through the weekend, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The Weather Prediction Center issued a Level 3 flood risk for Saturday covering Mobile, Alabama, and the Panhandle just west of Panama City. The hurricane center also forecasts 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.

Brennan warned of “multiple dangerous, life-threatening impacts” along the northern Gulf Coast on Friday, including surge, heavy rain, flooding and hurricane-force winds. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coast by Friday afternoon. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center said a tornado risk could develop along the north-central Gulf Coast into early Saturday.

The hurricane center issued a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, and a storm surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Tropical storm watches cover the coast from the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River in Florida.

The exact track remains uncertain, which could shift where the worst impacts land. Fox Weather’s forecast calls for landfall late Friday or early Saturday between Biloxi, Mississippi, and Panama City, Florida. Forecasters in Alabama said the hurricane center’s morning track brought the storm ashore near Gulf Shores around midnight Friday night with winds near 90 mph. Gulfport, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola, Florida, were within the forecast path as of Wednesday morning.

The storm is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. The hurricane center forecasts a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds on Friday, followed by some weakening before landfall. Senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake wrote in a forecast discussion that the storm’s internal structure had become better organized Wednesday morning, raising the possibility of rapid intensification over near-record warm Gulf waters. Rapid intensification is defined as a gain of 35 mph or more in maximum sustained winds within 24 hours.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order Tuesday declaring a state of emergency in 25 north Florida counties, from Escambia to Baker, according to the Tallahassee Democrat. State officials are moving generators, fuel, flood barriers, water and other supplies to staging areas in Tallahassee and Santa Rosa County. In Apalachicola, 11.84 inches of rain fell this week, including 7.49 inches Monday that tied the October one-day record, the National Weather Service said.

Hurricane Hunters from NOAA and the Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are scheduled to fly into the storm Wednesday and Thursday.

The storm also threatens Saturday’s football game between No. 6 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia in Tuscaloosa. The game is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Central at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and the school said it has no plans to change the kickoff.

Reuters reported that U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% Wednesday to a one-week high, partly on worries about supply disruptions. It said analysts note that Gulf storms can ultimately lower prices by shutting LNG export plants and cutting power demand. Reuters also reported the Gulf accounted for about 15% of U.S. crude production in September, or 2.05 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration.