OPINION:
The recent parliamentary election victory of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gives new momentum to the U.S.-backed peace process with Azerbaijan.
The result builds on President Trump’s breakthrough at the White House last August, when he brought Armenia and Azerbaijan together and helped turn years of stalled diplomacy into a framework to preserve peace and open regional trade.
At the center is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) Framework, which will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory and make Armenia a gateway between the Caspian and Europe.
TRIPP offers significant benefits. For Armenia, it will transform the country’s landlocked position into an economic asset by attracting investment and reducing transport costs. It will also help preserve peace by giving Armenia’s neighbors a practical stake in routes that remain under Armenian sovereignty and jurisdiction.
TRIPP will strengthen America’s role in a strategically important region without requiring troops or open-ended aid. It will also create commercial opportunities for U.S. companies as new transport links are built across the South Caucasus. These gains are substantial and merit support.
But a settlement cannot rest on maps and trade routes alone. One of the most urgent tests of Mr. Trump’s Caucasus deal is whether it can secure the return of the 19 Armenian prisoners still held in Azerbaijan in connection with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Releasing them would show that the agreement values people as well as trade.
For many Armenians, the prisoners still held in Azerbaijan remain the clearest sign that the war has not fully ended. Mr. Pashinyan has asked his country to pursue reconciliation with Azerbaijan while moving closer to the U.S. and Europe. That has required political courage.
Since the Washington framework was agreed to last year, Baku has agreed to border delimitation, renounced future territorial claims against Armenia and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Yerevan once the peace agreement enters into force.
But releasing the 19 prisoners would also encourage Armenian support for the agreement, both domestically and worldwide, while showing that the new South Caucasus framework is grounded in human dignity as well as economic opportunity.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders that was majority Armenian, was at the center of wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Soviet Union collapsed. In 2023, Azerbaijan regained control of the region after a military offensive — and nearly the entire ethnic Armenian population fled.
Azerbaijani authorities took former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders and other Armenians into custody. Some have received long prison sentences after trials criticized by human rights groups. Azerbaijan says those held committed serious crimes; Armenia regards them as political prisoners whose continued detention casts a shadow over any peace agreement.
Mr. Trump need not revisit every dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh to address the prisoner issue. He can support the peace framework while pressing for their release. No agreement will feel complete to Armenians while families are still waiting for prisoners to return.
As the midterm elections approach, America’s Armenian community, estimated at more than 1 million, is watching closely to see whether Washington has listened to a concern they have voiced for years.
America’s allies and European partners, including Canada and France, have also raised the issue and demanded the release of prisoners. Senior European lawmakers have said a release would be a goodwill gesture in support of lasting peace.
Mr. Trump has invested his prestige in this peace process, giving him leverage. He should encourage Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to release the 19 Armenian prisoners as a humanitarian act and a demonstration of Baku’s commitment to reconciliation.
TRIPP can provide new commercial routes for the South Caucasus, while the prisoners’ release can give the agreement a human foundation. If President Trump can help achieve both, he will strengthen the lasting impact of his Caucasus deal.
• Darren G. Spinck is managing director of Janus Forum and a non-resident fellow with the Danube Institute.
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