Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters has Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama by seven points, 52% to 45%. Mr. Romney’s total is greater than Richard Nixon’s 44% at this point in the race in 1968, Jimmy Carter’s 49% in 1976, Ronald Reagan’s hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%), George H. W. Bush’s 50% in 1988, and Bill Clinton’s 40% in 1992. In 2000 and 2008 George W. Bush and Barack Obama both tracked at a within-error 51%.
The Gallup numbers have come under criticism from Obama supporters for their supposed inaccuracy, but the oldest established polling organization has done well in predicting the last three elections. In 2000, the final Gallup likely voter poll showed a neck and neck race, 47/45, which turned out to be a 50/50 outcome. In 2004 Gallup had the Bush/Kerry race at 49/47 and the result was 50/48. And in 2008 Gallup’s final likely voter poll had Mr. Obama at 53% which was right on the money. Whether Mr. Romney’s tracking numbers will hold over the next few weeks remains to be seen but right now he is on a better trajectory than any presidential challenger in the last 40+ years.
Maybe the Justice Department will want to investigate.