The hunt is on. The news media is in full cry, chasing after President Trump‘s declining favorability numbers and critical of each and every policy decision issued by the White House. Some press coverage has suggested that Mr. Trump will resign from office, or drop out of the race. But wait. There are those who point to President Harry Truman, a Democrat who experienced the same thing in June 1948.
“The similarities between the 1948 and 2020 elections are striking. Like President Trump, Truman often ruffled feathers with his salty language. At one point, Truman even described Republican candidate Thomas Dewey as a fascist, a term not taken lightly just three years after World War II. Just as with Trump, the media described Truman as desperate and unhinged. Almost everyone thought Truman would lose, including the president’s mother-in-law. A Newsweek poll reported 50 out of 50 politicos predicting a Dewey victory,” writes Richard Lim, host of the podcast “This American President,” in an op-ed for The Washington Examiner.
Truman won of course.
“The 1948 election warns us that an upset is very possible. There are two dynamics at work in 2020 that were decisive that fateful year. The first is political staying power,” Mr. Lim says, who points out that Mr. Trump has weathered many a storm, just like Truman.
The second factor which could influence the election is aggression against the competition: Mr. Trump vs. Joseph R. Biden and Truman vs. Thomas Dewey.
“Like Trump, Truman was seen as a fighter who was not afraid to go against the political establishment. And like Biden, Dewey was an uninspiring candidate who, because of overconfidence, played it safe and limited his public appearances. It is possible that in a dangerous and unpredictable world, voters will prefer a feisty and aggressive Trump over a lackluster Biden,” writes Mr. Lim.
“Biden could still win in November. But if history can teach us anything, it is that the experts can get it wrong. We don’t even have to go back to 1948. Exactly four years ago (in June 2016), Hillary Clinton led Trump in the polls by 5 percentage points. The night before the election, the intelligentsia was still confidently predicting a Clinton win. The next day, Trump stunned the world,” the analyst says.
POCKETBOOK NEWS: NOT SO BAD
It is a given that the hostile news media will continue to pile up evidence that President Trump‘s trump card for reelection — the economy — is failing. Yes, there have been setbacks. Still, the stock market is inching back up again, as is the confidence of financial analysts and advisers. Now comes some promising evidence that Americans themselves are feeling better about their pocketbooks. A new Monmouth University poll finds that 78% of U.S. voters now describe their personal financial situation as either “stable” or “improving.” See the numbers in the Poll du Jour at column’s end.
THE PRESS CONFERENCE SCORE BOARD
With much ado, Democratic presidential hopeful Joseph R. Biden gave his first conference in three months on Tuesday, publicly informing the select group of reporters that he had been “cognitively tested” and called upon Congress to put President Trump though the same evaluation.
“Donald Trump has taken questions from reporters 34 times in the 89 days that Joe Biden took to take a press conference,” points out Eddie Scarry, media reporter for The Washington Examiner in an interview with Fox News.
A MOMENT OF MIRTH
“Democrats Prepare To Celebrate Dependence Day.”
That’s a parody headline from the satire site BabylonBee.com — which explains that Dependence Day is way for the Democratic Party to “reflect upon their complete and total dependence on the government.”
We already know that the high stress levels experienced by Americans during the coronavirus pandemic has put a strain on the relationships between spouses and significant others. Now comes another prediction.
New York City divorce attorney Jacqueline Newman says divorce rates are likely to increase across the nation as a result of the election.
“There have already been studies released that the divisive political climate has caused great stress and anxiety for many people in America. Therefore it is logical to extrapolate that this emotional stress has trickled into people’s personal lives, in particular their marriages,” says Ms. Newman. “The heat is going to rise come November and it will definitely impact marriages and may push those already on the edge, and over the cliff,” she predicts.
MoveOn.org, the progressive activist group, has revealed that 82% of its membership have endorsed Joseph R. Biden in his run for the White House, declaring that the he represents the “most progressive platform in Democratic Party history.”
This may not be an asset in an era when the majority of Americans describe themselves as moderates or conservatives, according to many polls.
“If there was any doubt left, MoveOn’s endorsement of Joe Biden confirms his sprint leftward in an attempt to appease the radical extremists in his party. The left-wing activists who endorsed socialist Bernie Sanders in 2016 have officially taken the wheel of Biden’s campaign. It’s no wonder he can’t unify Democrats behind his candidacy. Over and over again Biden has proven that he is too weak to stand up to fanatic leftists who are now calling the shots and will expect him to continue to fall in line,” declares Tim Murtaugh, communications director for President Trump’s reelection campaign.
POLL DU JOUR
• 61% of registered U.S. voters say their current financial situation is “stable”; 65% of Republicans, 57% of independents and 63% of Democrats agree.
• 20% overall report that they are “struggling” with their current financial situation”; 12% of Republicans, 24% of independents and 27% of Democrats agree.
• 17% overall report their financial situation is “improving”; 23% of Republicans, 18% of independents and 9% of Democrats agree.
Source: A Monmouth University poll of 733 registered U.S. voters conducted June 26-30.
• Kindly follow Jennifer Harper on Twitter @HarperBulletin.