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Threat Status for Wednesday, July 8, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

President Trump declared that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is “over.” It’s not clear where negotiations go from here, as he warned of more imminent attacks on Iranian targets and weighed reinstating a U.S. naval blockade.

… Mr. Trump’s comments came after the U.S. struck targets in Iran late Tuesday after apparent Iranian attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

… Mr. Trump unloaded on NATO allies who he said were “not there for us” during the Iran conflict. He also targeted Spain and threatened to cut off bilateral trade. 

… At the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Mr. Trump reiterated that the U.S. should control Greenland, prompting Denmark to push back.

… The U.S. will license Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles for itself.  

… The Navy identified Cmdr. Gabriel Edwards as the sailor reported missing July 1 when his chopper went down in the Arabian Sea. 

… Ukrainian authorities say they found the body of the woman wanted in connection with a bombing targeting a Ukrainian business tycoon in Monaco. 

… And Bolivia’s new center-right conservative president wants to strengthen ties with the U.S.

Ukraine's rising defense industry eyes expansion across Europe

A Ukrainian serviceman of K-2 brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces carries a midrange drone on takeoff position before flying towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

Ukraine is still highly dependent on Western military aid, especially missile and drone interceptors, as its war with Russia grinds on. But the country is no longer solely a recipient as its own defense industry looks to expand across Europe and find new customers for its products.

Those products include drones, ground robots, electronic warfare systems, battlefield software, missiles and counter-drone technology — all shaped by more than four years of modern, full-scale war. Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak was at the recent Eurosatory land warfare exhibition in Paris, where 80 Ukrainian companies displayed their capabilities.

At the last Eurosatory conference, only 12 Ukrainian companies attended.

The ascendant Ukrainian defense industry is reshaping the country’s relationship with Europe, as Kyiv seeks to move from being an arms recipient to a global defense supplier. Other European arms companies, meanwhile, are looking to Ukraine for lessons in speed, drones, electronic warfare and battlefield feedback, as well as inspiration to reform and modernize their own weapons procurement systems.

Drug cartels make billions smuggling gasoline back into Mexico

A tanker truck exits the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) fuel depot and distribution center in the port city of Veracruz, Mexico, Monday, Sept. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Victoria Razo)

Drugs get most of the attention, and with good reason. But fuel smuggling is now the second-biggest moneymaker for Mexico’s violent drug cartels, overtaking human migrant smuggling, which has largely dried up because of Mr. Trump’s aggressive border controls. 

Washington Times Reporter Stephen Dinan explains how Mexican cartels are smuggling fuel back into Mexico in a scheme to sell the product at full cost while evading taxes. As much as one-third of all fuel sold in Mexico may be illicit. And the Treasury Department said the Mexican government is losing tens of billions of dollars each year in potential tax revenue.

Huachicoleros, as the smugglers are known in Mexico, avoid official Mexican-licensed importers and sell the fuel directly to smaller distributors and retailers, thereby avoiding the duties they would otherwise have to pay.

Treasury recently imposed new financial sanctions on two men and nine companies associated with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, or CJNG, one of Mexico’s top cartels and a leading player in the oil-smuggling racket.

South Korea loses submarine bid as Canada chooses Germany instead

Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney makes an announcement at HMC Dockyard in Halifax on Monday, July 6, 2026. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press via AP)

South Korea has made no secret of its desire to deepen its defense industry partnership with NATO and its member nations. But its bid to supply 12 Arctic-capable diesel-electric submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy lost out to a German pitch this week, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney seemingly prioritizing his country’s links to the alliance over ties with Pacific partners.

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon has more on this story and all of its security and geopolitical implications. At the heart of the matter is the complex defense industry landscape facing South Korea’s arms industry, which has benefited from global instability and conflict by selling weapons to NATO nations fearful of both the Russian threat and concerned about a U.S. drawback from the alliance.

But NATO is a double-edged sword for Seoul: Alliance members are not just customers, but they are also competitors. And Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems won out over a South Korean consortium to provide Canada’s new submarines. 

Opinion: Do not sell Turkey the F-35 fighter jet

The United States of America selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Mr. Trump indicated he is ready to support Turkey’s reentry into the F-35 fighter jet program.

Columnist Jed Babbin says that is a bad idea. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has taken numerous steps on multiple fronts that could undermine U.S. security and the strength of the NATO alliance. At the top of that list is the reason Turkey was booted from the F-35 program in the first place: its purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, Mr. Babbin says.

“The U.S. has distrusted Turkey since — a fact Mr. Trump should not casually dismiss. Why? Because it would have been simple for Russian engineers to pore over Turkish F-35s and reengineer their stealthy aircraft, as well as the S-400 and S-500 systems,” Mr. Babbin writes in The Times.

Opinion: U.S., Israel must stop Iran from exploiting digital platforms to buy intelligence

Iran's hybrid warfare and exploiting digital technology to spy illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

It’s an affordable way to gain valuable intelligence in the 21st century: Enlist average civilians via the gig economy to document sensitive infrastructure in an adversary country.

Kevin Cohen, the CEO of RealEye and the head of cyber intelligence at Trident Group America, explains in a new op-ed in The Times why the U.S., Israel and other nations must act now to cut off this new form of intelligence-gathering.

“Tehran is buying raw civilian behavior through a hyperfragmented, gig economy model of hybrid warfare: Go here, photograph this, collect the crypto. This algorithmic erosion turns everyday platforms into operational cutouts, weaponizing regular civilians as ambient sensors,” he writes. “Iran’s approach starts lower and spreads wider, targeting individuals near a base, a port or a minister’s residence. The recruit needs no strategic overview; he must only complete the next task.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 8 — Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Proposers Day: Lightweight Universal Codec Program, DARPA

• July 8-9 — Military Robotics and Autonomous Systems USA Conference, SAE Media Group

• July 10 — Taiwan’s Institutional Defense: Countering Chinese Communist Party Infiltration and Transnational Repression, Hudson Institute

• July 14 — Strategic Landpower Dialogue: A Conversation with Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano, Center for Strategic and International Studies 

• July 14-17 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Strategy Group

• July 14-15 — Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit, Sen. Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania Republican, U.S. Army War College

• July 15 — The Future of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East, with Rep. Mike Lawler, New York Republican, Hudson Institute 

• Aug. 2-5 — Air and Space Force Procurement Conference, American Defense Alliance

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