The Washington Times - May 4, 2012, 09:22AM

The first day of the Big East tournament shifted the projected NCAA lacrosse bracket a bit.

The Big East will not be a one-bid league thanks to Notre Dame’s loss to St. John’s. Instead, either St. John’s or Syracuse will take the conference’s automatic bid, and Notre Dame will gobble up a place in the at-large pool.

SEE RELATED:


That, in turn, leads to this breakdown of the field, with all RPI data courtesy of LaxPower:

PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS (7; *-clinched bid)

TeamW-LRPI   SOS   T5T10T20T20 wins
Loyola13-11171-1  
1-1  
5-1  
3-Duke, 12-@Denver (2x)
14-@Fairfield, 18-Ohio State
Massachusetts   
14-02390-00-04-015-@Penn State, 16-vs. Drexel  
18-@Ohio State, 20-Bucknell
Lehigh*14-2  
6200-02-15-18-@UNC, 9-@Colgate
15-@Penn State, 19-Yale
20-Bucknell
Princeton10-311280-10-22-313-Cornell, 19-@Yale
Syracuse8-71760-30-41-511-Princeton
Siena10-431580-10-10-1
Stony Brook
6-938450-00-10-3

 

Of the remaining projected AQs, only Loyola and Massachusetts would be sure-fire at-large picks. Princeton would warrant a look in the at-large pool, but its profile isn’t overwhelming.

AT-LARGE LOCKS (6)

TeamW-LRPI   SOS   T5T10T20T20 wins
Duke13-4320-2  
4-3  
5-4  
7-@UVa, 8-UNC
8-vs. UNC, 10-vs. Maryland
17-vs. Syracuse
Johns Hopkins10-3  
4161-02-24-21-@Loyola, 7-@UVa
11-@Princeton, 17-Syracuse   
Notre Dame
11-25211-01-05-13-Duke, 12-Denver
16-@Drexel, 17-Syracuse
18-@Ohio State
Virginia11-3770-22-36-38-@UNC, 10-@Maryland
13-vs. Cornell, 16-@Drexel
17-Syracuse, 18-@Ohio State
North Carolina
10-5811-23-45-44-vs. Hopkins, 7-@UVa
10-Maryland, 11-vs. Princeton  
15-vs. Penn State
Maryland9-41082-12-32-33-Duke, 4-@Hopkins

 

Only three of these teams still have games remaining: Hopkins at home against Army, North Carolina at home against Michigan and Maryland on the road against Colgate. … Maryland’s profile is short on quality wins, but it is the only team with a pair of top-five wins.

REST OF FIELD (12 for 3 spots)

TeamW-LRPI   SOS   T5T10T20T20 wins
Colgate12-3  
9190-0  
1-1  
4-1  
6-Lehigh, 12-Fairfield  
20-Bucknell (H & A)
Denver8-61241-31-32-63-Duke, 15-@Penn State
Cornell9-313330-00-13-212-vs. Denver, 17-Syracuse
19-Yale
Fairfield12-314220-00-12-312-Denver, 18-vs. Ohio State  
Penn State   
9-61551-11-33-65-@Notre Dame, 16-@Drexel
18-@Ohio State
Drexel8-716130-20-31-515-@Penn State
Ohio State
8-718
30-30-42-612-vs. Denver, 14-@Fairfield
Yale9-419350-00-10-3
Bucknell9-720120-10-42-415-@Penn State, 16-@Drexel
Villanova8-721110-11-24-56-@Lehigh, 16-Drexel
17-@Syracuse, 20-Bucknell
St. John’s
8-623241-11-11-45-vs. Notre Dame
Navy6-624291-02-32-44-Hopkins, 9-@Colgate

 

A win over Maryland takes care of things for Colgate. Without chaos this weekend, the Raiders should be fine, anyway. … Denver and Penn State are going to ride those top-five wins as far as possible. Those teams occupy the last two at-larges in the bracket projection below (and in that order, too) … If Cornell doesn’t win the Ivy League tournament, it better hope this committee heavily values head-to-head performances. The Big Red’s win over Denver is the best thing it has going for it. …  

Fairfield hadn’t beaten a top-20 team away from home until the ECAC semifinals. … Drexel hadn’t beaten a top-20 team anywhere until the CAA semifinals. … Ohio State gets credit for a quality schedule, but it needed to beat one of those top-10 opponents somewhere along the line. Losing by a combined four goals to Virginia, Notre Dame and Loyola in a span of 15 days scuttles the Buckeyes’ hopes. …

Don’t float Yale, the king of the one-goal games, as a credible at-large possibility with no top-20 wins. … Bucknell is much like Ohio State. It had its chances against the top 10 and went 0-for-4, and suffered three of those losses by a combined four goals. … Villanova’s collapse is going to outweigh its top-20 wins. …

As much fun as St. John’s is to watch, the Red Storm still has just one top-20 win. They need to topple Syracuse tomorrow. … Navy is not getting in, but the Mids warrant a mention thanks to their two top-10 wins. The computer numbers and that ugly loss to Jacksonville ensure Navy’s season is over.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Annapolis

(1) Duke vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(8) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh

Chester, Pa.

(4) Virginia vs. Penn State
(5) Johns Hopkins vs. IVY/Princeton

Chester, Pa.

(3) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Syracuse
(6) COLONIAL/Massachusetts vs. Colgate

Annapolis

(2) ECAC/Loyola vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver

Patrick Stevens