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Gallup: Americans expect Obama to win

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A majority of Americans think President Obama will win re-election next week over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Gallup poll found that 54 percent of adults surveyed predict that Mr. Obama will win a second term, while 34 percent say he will lose to Mr. Romney.

While the survey measures Americans’ expectations and not their actual voting preferences, Gallup has conducted the same poll leading up to the last four presidential elections, and each time respondents have correctly predicted that year’s winner.

Many voter polls show a tight race leading up to Election Day, but Americans consistently have said they expect the president to win a second term — an expectation that pollsters have chalked up in part to Mr. Obama’s status as the incumbent.

Mr. Obama’s 20-point advantage in Wednesday’s poll was only 2 percentage points less than his edge in an identical poll from August, and equal to the advantage he held in May.

Wednesday’s poll showed that Democrats and Republicans are both confident of their party’s candidates, but that most independents expect an Obama win.

Among Democrats, 86 percent predict a win for the president while 8 percent expect Mr. Romney to win.
Seventy-one percent of Republicans think Mr. Romney will win and 19 percent think he will lose, while independents predict an Obama win by a 52-42 margin.

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