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Threat Status for Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Questions are swirling over the extent to which Israeli intelligence is trying to sow confusion over the Iranian supreme leader’s whereabouts. 

… A U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission delegation is in China, and Commission Chair Randall Schriver says: “We are not traveling to reset the relationship. We are traveling to understand it.”

… Sources tell Threat Status the trip is part of a “bubble” of positive diplomatic exchanges that began with the May summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing and will continue through a planned September meeting in Washington for the two leaders.

… Sources separately tell Threat Status Mr. Trump’s Board of Peace is making progress toward establishing a pilot humanitarian and governance zone in southern Gaza.

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine will be grilled on the Iran war during a Senate budget hearing Tuesday afternoon.

… The Jewish Institute for National Security of America issued a report Tuesday titled: “Arsenal of Procrastination: The United States Must Expand Munitions Production, Not Merely Replenish.”

… The Russian and North Korean foreign ministers criticized the U.S. during a meeting in Moscow on Monday.

… A new 38 North analysis examines whether North Korea is pursuing a “Juche-Oriented” Nuclear Triad.

… And the Pentagon has identified the U.S. soldier killed in Iraq during the detonation of a downed Iranian drone as Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton.

Saudis could get drawn in as Houthis open new front in Middle East war

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree speaks at a rally against the U.S. and Israel in Sanaa, Yemen, April 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman, File)

The Yemen-based Houthi militants backed by Iran said Monday they are preparing a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia — a security partner of Washington and the primary Sunni Muslim Arab rival to Shiite Persian Iran. The development could open a widening front in the escalating war, even as Pakistani and Qatari mediators say they’re scrambling to broker a new U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

The Houthis control much of southwestern Yemen and maintain effective command over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Saudis have relied on their East-West Pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, redirecting oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu — a route now facing the Houthi threat.

The mere threat to oil tankers in the Red Sea — even short of actual attacks — could be enough to deter shipping companies and insurers from authorizing vessel transits. Should the Bab al-Mandeb be effectively closed by the Houthis, it would eliminate one of the few remaining alternative pathways for Persian Gulf nations to move oil to the rest of the world.

Where exactly is Mojtaba Khamenei?

People walk past banners showing portraits of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in downtown Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The whereabouts of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei were thrust into the spotlight Sunday after reports that the 56-year-old may have fled Iran. Some analysts say Mr. Khamenei may be in Russia, an Iranian ally with a track record of offering asylum to hard-line heads of state.

Other sources say that it is unlikely and that he is probably still in Iran. The increasingly loud rumors of his departure, those sources argue, could be part of a sophisticated Israeli intelligence operation to sow confusion in Tehran and further weaken an embattled regime that faces enormous economic and military pressure from the U.S., and growing isolation across the Middle East.

The uncertainty about Mr. Khamenei — who assumed office on March 8 after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike — comes at a crucial moment. The U.S. and Iran are barreling toward a return to full-blown war, if they are not there already, after the collapse of a roughly two-month ceasefire between the two sides.

Exclusive: Food security key as U.S. expands footprint in Venezuela

Volunteers pull a rope to remove a debris from a collapsed building by earthquakes in La Guaira, Venezuela, Sunday, July 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been coordinating food security efforts in Venezuela after twin earthquakes devastated the country last month, part of Washington’s broader humanitarian footprint in the Latin American nation since the Trump administration captured former President Nicolas Maduro in January.

Luke J. Lindberg, undersecretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, recently headed a delegation that has been distributing food supplied by the State Department. He tells Threat Status the initiative involves a “whole-of-government approach,” incorporating entities such as the Global Empowerment Mission, Samaritan’s Purse, the World Food Program and the United Nations.

U.S. military personnel are on the ground in Venezuela offloading the aid, Mr. Lindberg said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the U.S. has committed more than $180 million in aid, describing U.S. involvement in Venezuela as a phased process — stabilizing the country, aiding its recovery and eventually helping it transition to a functioning democracy after years of authoritarian rule.

More than 100 senior PLA officers purged for corruption

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping, bottom left, who is also Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) poses for photos with newly promoted generals Wang Shuguang, top left and Wang Gang, top right while Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the CMC stands at the right in Beijing, on Friday, July 3, 2026. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)

The ongoing firings within China’s People’s Liberation Army are creating immediate readiness shortfalls for the Chinese Communist Party’s military wing, according to a new report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a U.S. Air Force think tank.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz digs into the report, writing that a specific reason for the mass military dismissals is not clear: It could be corruption or a lack of loyalty to Mr. Xi, who said in a recent speech broadcast to his military commands that the PLA must deepen “political rectification.”

The Chinese president told a group of assembled leaders that the PLA must be guided by ideals and convictions and have “firm faith in Marxism and be loyal to the party.” The think tank report says some analysts regard the anti-corruption campaign as a tool of Mr. Xi to consolidate power and ensure military loyalty.

Opinion: The great Chinese data heist

China stealing data and controlling information around the world illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The revelation by Mr. Trump that U.S. intelligence knew the Chinese Communist Party acquired data on some 220 million American voter files “should not be viewed merely through the narrow lens of election security,” writes Miles Yu, a Threat Status opinion contributor.

“In 2015, Chinese agents penetrated the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and stole the security clearance files of more than 21 million current and former federal employees,” he writes in his Red Horizon column for The Washington Times. “These included fingerprints, financial histories, foreign contacts, psychological evaluations, marital problems, medical records and the intimate details required for the government’s most sensitive background investigations.

“Intelligence professionals immediately understood what had happened,” writes Mr. Yu, director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center. “China had acquired an owner’s manual for identifying, recruiting, blackmailing or tracking America’s national security workforce.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 21-29 — Project Convergence-Capstone 6, U.S. Army

• July 21 — AI+ Discovery Summit, Special Competitive Studies Project

• July 22 — Expanding U.S. Investment in the Western Hemisphere, Atlantic Council 

• July 22 — How Ukraine’s Deep-strike Campaign is Causing Cracks in the Kremlin, Atlantic Council

• July 23 — The Path Ahead for U.S.-South Korea Shipbuilding, Stimson Center

• July 30 — U.S.-North Africa Relations in an Era of Strategic Disruption, Stimson Center

• Aug. 4-5 — 2026 Air Force and Space Force Procurement Conference, American Defense Alliance

• Aug. 5-6 — Border Security & Intelligence Summit, Defense Strategies Institute

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