The first day of the Big East tournament shifted the projected NCAA lacrosse bracket a bit.
The Big East will not be a one-bid league thanks to Notre Dame’s loss to St. John’s. Instead, either St. John’s or Syracuse will take the conference’s automatic bid, and Notre Dame will gobble up a place in the at-large pool.
SEE RELATED:
That, in turn, leads to this breakdown of the field, with all RPI data courtesy of LaxPower:
PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS (7; *-clinched bid)
| Team |
W-L |
RPI |
SOS |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
T20 wins
|
| Loyola |
13-1 |
1 |
17 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
5-1
|
3-Duke, 12-@Denver (2x)
14-@Fairfield, 18-Ohio State
|
Massachusetts
|
14-0 |
2 |
39 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
4-0 |
15-@Penn State, 16-vs. Drexel
18-@Ohio State, 20-Bucknell
|
| Lehigh* |
14-2
|
6 |
20 |
0-0 |
2-1 |
5-1 |
8-@UNC, 9-@Colgate
15-@Penn State, 19-Yale
20-Bucknell
|
| Princeton |
10-3 |
11 |
28 |
0-1 |
0-2 |
2-3 |
13-Cornell, 19-@Yale
|
| Syracuse |
8-7 |
17 |
6 |
0-3 |
0-4 |
1-5 |
11-Princeton |
| Siena |
10-4 |
31 |
58 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
—- |
Stony Brook
|
6-9 |
38 |
45 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-3 |
—- |
Of the remaining projected AQs, only Loyola and Massachusetts would be sure-fire at-large picks. Princeton would warrant a look in the at-large pool, but its profile isn’t overwhelming.
AT-LARGE LOCKS (6)
| Team |
W-L |
RPI |
SOS |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
T20 wins
|
| Duke |
13-4 |
3 |
2 |
0-2
|
4-3
|
5-4
|
7-@UVa, 8-UNC
8-vs. UNC, 10-vs. Maryland
17-vs. Syracuse
|
| Johns Hopkins |
10-3
|
4 |
16 |
1-0 |
2-2 |
4-2 |
1-@Loyola, 7-@UVa
11-@Princeton, 17-Syracuse
|
Notre Dame
|
11-2 |
5 |
21 |
1-0 |
1-0 |
5-1 |
3-Duke, 12-Denver
16-@Drexel, 17-Syracuse
18-@Ohio State
|
| Virginia |
11-3 |
7 |
7 |
0-2 |
2-3 |
6-3 |
8-@UNC, 10-@Maryland
13-vs. Cornell, 16-@Drexel
17-Syracuse, 18-@Ohio State
|
North Carolina
|
10-5 |
8 |
1 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
5-4 |
4-vs. Hopkins, 7-@UVa
10-Maryland, 11-vs. Princeton
15-vs. Penn State
|
| Maryland |
9-4 |
10 |
8 |
2-1 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-Duke, 4-@Hopkins
|
Only three of these teams still have games remaining: Hopkins at home against Army, North Carolina at home against Michigan and Maryland on the road against Colgate. … Maryland’s profile is short on quality wins, but it is the only team with a pair of top-five wins.
REST OF FIELD (12 for 3 spots)
| Team |
W-L |
RPI |
SOS |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
T20 wins
|
| Colgate |
12-3
|
9 |
19 |
0-0
|
1-1
|
4-1
|
6-Lehigh, 12-Fairfield
20-Bucknell (H & A)
|
| Denver |
8-6 |
12 |
4 |
1-3 |
1-3 |
2-6 |
3-Duke, 15-@Penn State
|
| Cornell |
9-3 |
13 |
33 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
3-2 |
12-vs. Denver, 17-Syracuse
19-Yale
|
| Fairfield |
12-3 |
14 |
22 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
2-3 |
12-Denver, 18-vs. Ohio State
|
Penn State
|
9-6 |
15 |
5 |
1-1 |
1-3 |
3-6 |
5-@Notre Dame, 16-@Drexel
18-@Ohio State |
| Drexel |
8-7 |
16 |
13 |
0-2 |
0-3 |
1-5 |
15-@Penn State
|
Ohio State
|
8-7 |
18
|
3 |
0-3 |
0-4 |
2-6 |
12-vs. Denver, 14-@Fairfield
|
| Yale |
9-4 |
19 |
35 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-3 |
—- |
| Bucknell |
9-7 |
20 |
12 |
0-1 |
0-4 |
2-4 |
15-@Penn State, 16-@Drexel
|
| Villanova |
8-7 |
21 |
11 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
4-5 |
6-@Lehigh, 16-Drexel
17-@Syracuse, 20-Bucknell
|
St. John’s
|
8-6 |
23 |
24 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
1-4 |
5-vs. Notre Dame
|
| Navy |
6-6 |
24 |
29 |
1-0 |
2-3 |
2-4 |
4-Hopkins, 9-@Colgate
|
A win over Maryland takes care of things for Colgate. Without chaos this weekend, the Raiders should be fine, anyway. … Denver and Penn State are going to ride those top-five wins as far as possible. Those teams occupy the last two at-larges in the bracket projection below (and in that order, too) … If Cornell doesn’t win the Ivy League tournament, it better hope this committee heavily values head-to-head performances. The Big Red’s win over Denver is the best thing it has going for it. …
Fairfield hadn’t beaten a top-20 team away from home until the ECAC semifinals. … Drexel hadn’t beaten a top-20 team anywhere until the CAA semifinals. … Ohio State gets credit for a quality schedule, but it needed to beat one of those top-10 opponents somewhere along the line. Losing by a combined four goals to Virginia, Notre Dame and Loyola in a span of 15 days scuttles the Buckeyes’ hopes. …
Don’t float Yale, the king of the one-goal games, as a credible at-large possibility with no top-20 wins. … Bucknell is much like Ohio State. It had its chances against the top 10 and went 0-for-4, and suffered three of those losses by a combined four goals. … Villanova‘s collapse is going to outweigh its top-20 wins. …
As much fun as St. John’s is to watch, the Red Storm still has just one top-20 win. They need to topple Syracuse tomorrow. … Navy is not getting in, but the Mids warrant a mention thanks to their two top-10 wins. The computer numbers and that ugly loss to Jacksonville ensure Navy’s season is over.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Annapolis
(1) Duke vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(8) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
Chester, Pa.
(4) Virginia vs. Penn State
(5) Johns Hopkins vs. IVY/Princeton
Chester, Pa.
(3) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Syracuse
(6) COLONIAL/Massachusetts vs. Colgate
Annapolis
(2) ECAC/Loyola vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver
—- Patrick Stevens
