The Washington Times - May 4, 2012, 09:22AM

The first day of the Big East tournament shifted the projected NCAA lacrosse bracket a bit.

The Big East will not be a one-bid league thanks to Notre Dame’s loss to St. John’s. Instead, either St. John’s or Syracuse will take the conference’s automatic bid, and Notre Dame will gobble up a place in the at-large pool.

SEE RELATED:


That, in turn, leads to this breakdown of the field, with all RPI data courtesy of LaxPower:

PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS (7; *-clinched bid)

Team W-L RPI    SOS    T5 T10 T20 T20 wins
Loyola 13-1 1 17 1-1  
1-1  
5-1  
3-Duke, [email protected] (2x)
[email protected], 18-Ohio State
Massachusetts   
14-0 2 39 0-0 0-0 4-0 [email protected] State, 16-vs. Drexel  
[email protected] State, 20-Bucknell
Lehigh* 14-2  
6 20 0-0 2-1 5-1 [email protected], [email protected]
[email protected] State, 19-Yale
20-Bucknell
Princeton 10-3 11 28 0-1 0-2 2-3 13-Cornell, [email protected]
Syracuse 8-7 17 6 0-3 0-4 1-5 11-Princeton
Siena 10-4 31 58 0-1 0-1 0-1
Stony Brook
6-9 38 45 0-0 0-1 0-3

 

Of the remaining projected AQs, only Loyola and Massachusetts would be sure-fire at-large picks. Princeton would warrant a look in the at-large pool, but its profile isn’t overwhelming.

AT-LARGE LOCKS (6)

Team W-L RPI    SOS    T5 T10 T20 T20 wins
Duke 13-4 3 2 0-2  
4-3  
5-4  
[email protected], 8-UNC
8-vs. UNC, 10-vs. Maryland
17-vs. Syracuse
Johns Hopkins 10-3  
4 16 1-0 2-2 4-2 [email protected], [email protected]
[email protected], 17-Syracuse   
Notre Dame
11-2 5 21 1-0 1-0 5-1 3-Duke, 12-Denver
[email protected], 17-Syracuse
[email protected] State
Virginia 11-3 7 7 0-2 2-3 6-3 [email protected], [email protected]
13-vs. Cornell, [email protected]
17-Syracuse, [email protected] State
North Carolina
10-5 8 1 1-2 3-4 5-4 4-vs. Hopkins, [email protected]
10-Maryland, 11-vs. Princeton  
15-vs. Penn State
Maryland 9-4 10 8 2-1 2-3 2-3 3-Duke, [email protected]

 

Only three of these teams still have games remaining: Hopkins at home against Army, North Carolina at home against Michigan and Maryland on the road against Colgate. … Maryland’s profile is short on quality wins, but it is the only team with a pair of top-five wins.

REST OF FIELD (12 for 3 spots)

Team W-L RPI    SOS    T5 T10 T20 T20 wins
Colgate 12-3  
9 19 0-0  
1-1  
4-1  
6-Lehigh, 12-Fairfield  
20-Bucknell (H & A)
Denver 8-6 12 4 1-3 1-3 2-6 3-Duke, [email protected] State
Cornell 9-3 13 33 0-0 0-1 3-2 12-vs. Denver, 17-Syracuse
19-Yale
Fairfield 12-3 14 22 0-0 0-1 2-3 12-Denver, 18-vs. Ohio State  
Penn State   
9-6 15 5 1-1 1-3 3-6 [email protected] Dame, [email protected]
[email protected] State
Drexel 8-7 16 13 0-2 0-3 1-5 [email protected] State
Ohio State
8-7 18
3 0-3 0-4 2-6 12-vs. Denver, [email protected]
Yale 9-4 19 35 0-0 0-1 0-3
Bucknell 9-7 20 12 0-1 0-4 2-4 [email protected] State, [email protected]
Villanova 8-7 21 11 0-1 1-2 4-5 [email protected], 16-Drexel
[email protected], 20-Bucknell
St. John’s
8-6 23 24 1-1 1-1 1-4 5-vs. Notre Dame
Navy 6-6 24 29 1-0 2-3 2-4 4-Hopkins, [email protected]

 

A win over Maryland takes care of things for Colgate. Without chaos this weekend, the Raiders should be fine, anyway. … Denver and Penn State are going to ride those top-five wins as far as possible. Those teams occupy the last two at-larges in the bracket projection below (and in that order, too) … If Cornell doesn’t win the Ivy League tournament, it better hope this committee heavily values head-to-head performances. The Big Red’s win over Denver is the best thing it has going for it. …  

Fairfield hadn’t beaten a top-20 team away from home until the ECAC semifinals. … Drexel hadn’t beaten a top-20 team anywhere until the CAA semifinals. … Ohio State gets credit for a quality schedule, but it needed to beat one of those top-10 opponents somewhere along the line. Losing by a combined four goals to Virginia, Notre Dame and Loyola in a span of 15 days scuttles the Buckeyes’ hopes. …

Don’t float Yale, the king of the one-goal games, as a credible at-large possibility with no top-20 wins. … Bucknell is much like Ohio State. It had its chances against the top 10 and went 0-for-4, and suffered three of those losses by a combined four goals. … Villanova’s collapse is going to outweigh its top-20 wins. …

As much fun as St. John’s is to watch, the Red Storm still has just one top-20 win. They need to topple Syracuse tomorrow. … Navy is not getting in, but the Mids warrant a mention thanks to their two top-10 wins. The computer numbers and that ugly loss to Jacksonville ensure Navy’s season is over.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Annapolis

(1) Duke vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(8) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh

Chester, Pa.

(4) Virginia vs. Penn State
(5) Johns Hopkins vs. IVY/Princeton

Chester, Pa.

(3) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Syracuse
(6) COLONIAL/Massachusetts vs. Colgate

Annapolis

(2) ECAC/Loyola vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver

Patrick Stevens