The first day of the Big East tournament shifted the projected NCAA lacrosse bracket a bit.
The Big East will not be a one-bid league thanks to Notre Dame’s loss to St. John’s. Instead, either St. John’s or Syracuse will take the conference’s automatic bid, and Notre Dame will gobble up a place in the at-large pool.
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That, in turn, leads to this breakdown of the field, with all RPI data courtesy of LaxPower:
PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS (7; *-clinched bid)
Of the remaining projected AQs, only Loyola and Massachusetts would be sure-fire at-large picks. Princeton would warrant a look in the at-large pool, but its profile isn’t overwhelming.
AT-LARGE LOCKS (6)
| Team | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | T20 wins
|
| Duke | 13-4 | 3 | 2 | 0-2
| 4-3
| 5-4
| [email protected], 8-UNC
8-vs. UNC, 10-vs. Maryland
17-vs. Syracuse
|
| Johns Hopkins | 10-3
| 4 | 16 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 4-2 | [email protected], [email protected]
[email protected], 17-Syracuse
|
Notre Dame
| 11-2 | 5 | 21 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 3-Duke, 12-Denver
[email protected], 17-Syracuse
[email protected] State
|
| Virginia | 11-3 | 7 | 7 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 6-3 | [email protected], [email protected]
13-vs. Cornell, [email protected]
17-Syracuse, [email protected] State
|
North Carolina
| 10-5 | 8 | 1 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 5-4 | 4-vs. Hopkins, [email protected]
10-Maryland, 11-vs. Princeton
15-vs. Penn State
|
| Maryland | 9-4 | 10 | 8 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 3-Duke, [email protected]
|
Only three of these teams still have games remaining: Hopkins at home against Army, North Carolina at home against Michigan and Maryland on the road against Colgate. … Maryland’s profile is short on quality wins, but it is the only team with a pair of top-five wins.
REST OF FIELD (12 for 3 spots)
| Team | W-L | RPI | SOS | T5 | T10 | T20 | T20 wins
|
| Colgate | 12-3
| 9 | 19 | 0-0
| 1-1
| 4-1
| 6-Lehigh, 12-Fairfield
20-Bucknell (H & A)
|
| Denver | 8-6 | 12 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-6 | 3-Duke, [email protected] State
|
| Cornell | 9-3 | 13 | 33 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3-2 | 12-vs. Denver, 17-Syracuse
19-Yale
|
| Fairfield | 12-3 | 14 | 22 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 12-Denver, 18-vs. Ohio State
|
Penn State
| 9-6 | 15 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 3-6 | [email protected] Dame, [email protected]
[email protected] State |
| Drexel | 8-7 | 16 | 13 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-5 | [email protected] State
|
Ohio State
| 8-7 | 18
| 3 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 2-6 | 12-vs. Denver, [email protected]
|
| Yale | 9-4 | 19 | 35 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-3 | – |
| Bucknell | 9-7 | 20 | 12 | 0-1 | 0-4 | 2-4 | [email protected] State, [email protected]
|
| Villanova | 8-7 | 21 | 11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4-5 | [email protected], 16-Drexel
[email protected], 20-Bucknell
|
St. John’s
| 8-6 | 23 | 24 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 5-vs. Notre Dame
|
| Navy | 6-6 | 24 | 29 | 1-0 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 4-Hopkins, [email protected]
|
A win over Maryland takes care of things for Colgate. Without chaos this weekend, the Raiders should be fine, anyway. … Denver and Penn State are going to ride those top-five wins as far as possible. Those teams occupy the last two at-larges in the bracket projection below (and in that order, too) … If Cornell doesn’t win the Ivy League tournament, it better hope this committee heavily values head-to-head performances. The Big Red’s win over Denver is the best thing it has going for it. …
Fairfield hadn’t beaten a top-20 team away from home until the ECAC semifinals. … Drexel hadn’t beaten a top-20 team anywhere until the CAA semifinals. … Ohio State gets credit for a quality schedule, but it needed to beat one of those top-10 opponents somewhere along the line. Losing by a combined four goals to Virginia, Notre Dame and Loyola in a span of 15 days scuttles the Buckeyes’ hopes. …
Don’t float Yale, the king of the one-goal games, as a credible at-large possibility with no top-20 wins. … Bucknell is much like Ohio State. It had its chances against the top 10 and went 0-for-4, and suffered three of those losses by a combined four goals. … Villanova’s collapse is going to outweigh its top-20 wins. …
As much fun as St. John’s is to watch, the Red Storm still has just one top-20 win. They need to topple Syracuse tomorrow. … Navy is not getting in, but the Mids warrant a mention thanks to their two top-10 wins. The computer numbers and that ugly loss to Jacksonville ensure Navy’s season is over.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Annapolis
(1) Duke vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(8) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
Chester, Pa.
(4) Virginia vs. Penn State
(5) Johns Hopkins vs. IVY/Princeton
Chester, Pa.
(3) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Syracuse
(6) COLONIAL/Massachusetts vs. Colgate
Annapolis
(2) ECAC/Loyola vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver
– Patrick Stevens
