Europe’s largest land warfare exhibition opened Monday outside Paris under a cloud of urgency, as government officials, arms manufacturers and military delegations gathered to discuss a question that has leaped from the realm of theory to reality: How fast can the West prepare for the next major war?

Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak is on the ground at Eurosatory 2026, which has brought together more than 2,100 exhibitors from 65 countries. The scale of the show reflects how deeply European capitals are grappling with how to spend more on defense.

Eurosatory has long been a marketplace for tanks, artillery, armored vehicles, radars, missiles and military electronics. This year, it is also a test of whether Europe’s defense industry can pivot from boutique production to something closer to a war economy. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has been central to that shift.

Delegations from Tehran and Washington intend to travel to Geneva Friday for an official signing ceremony of the U.S.-Iran agreement. Vice President J.D. Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to lead the U.S. team.

The exact terms of the memo of understanding undergirding the framework deal have not been released, but Trump administration officials say a firm ceasefire has been established and a 60-day timeline has been set for negotiators to flesh out more complex issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance electronically signed the agreement Sunday. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, signed on behalf of Tehran, senior administration officials said. Mr. Trump has said he does not expect the text of the agreement to be released publicly until at least Friday.

Ralph DeFalco III, a former deputy director of U.S. intelligence at the National Joint Operations and Intelligence Center, joined the latest episode of the Threat Status podcast to discuss “The Counterfeit,” his new fictional novel set in an alternate future in which China defeats the U.S. in a Pacific conflict.

Mr. DeFalco also shed some light on some real-world developments, asserting that AI is creating “an entirely new environment” for foreign adversaries to exploit openings in U.S. society to create divisiveness, sow seeds for violence and “begin a process of eliciting support inside the country for a foreign power.”

He pointed specifically to the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department. “The news lately has told us repeatedly about Chinese agents operating in the United States. Those are all people who’ve been manipulated and coached and financed by the United Front Work Department,” Mr. DeFalco said. “That’s only going to get worse in the years to come as China continues to try to exercise influence over American policy, both domestic and foreign.”

American policymakers routinely “assume that Iranian negotiating behavior is primarily a product of Shiite theology and revolutionary ideology,” writes William Gawthrop, a retired U.S. intelligence analyst. “Religion is important, but it is not the whole story. In many cases, it is not even the dominant story.

“Iran’s negotiating behavior is best understood as the product of two interacting forces: Persian strategic culture and Shiite revolutionary ideology,” Mr. Gawthrop argues in an op-ed for The Washington Times. “The ideology explains the objectives; Persian culture explains the methods.

“Understanding these forces is even more important now that President Trump and Tehran have reached a deal to end the war,” he writes. “Confusing the two leads to repeated misinterpretation of Iranian intentions and negotiating behavior. The Islamic Republic of Iran is only 47 years old. Persia is approximately 2,500 years old.”

Afghanistan has “backslid into a haven for terrorism and a playground for America’s adversaries,” write Christopher H. Shays and Richard Swett, two former congressmen who assess that al Qaeda is rebuilding on Afghan soil, while Pakistan faces mounting terrorist pressure, China expands its economic footprint, and Iran deepens ties with the Taliban.

“While the United States disengaged, rival powers and extremist groups moved in,” Mr. Shays of Connecticut and Mr. Swett of New Hampshire write in an op-ed for The Times. “Start with the reason America entered Afghanistan in the first place: al Qaeda.

“Reports indicate that Hamza bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s son and heir to the al Qaeda network, has been helping rebuild the organization from Afghan territory,” they write. “The Taliban regime, which once sheltered the architects of 9/11, has shown neither the ability nor the desire to stop it.”

• June 16-19 — Eurosatory 2026: The Global Event for Defense and Security, COGES Events

• June 16 — Fireside Chat with Assistant Secretary of War Michael Cadenazzi on U.S. Munitions Production, Center for a New American Security

• June 18 — Enforcing, Accelerating and Advancing Global Trade Through Supply Chain Traceability, Stimson Center

• June 18 — Deterring Russia and China: Securing America’s Nuclear Future, Hudson Institute

• June 24 — IndoPac 2026 | Naval Dominance: Shipbuilding, Autonomy & C2, Threat Status Events

• June 25 — Navigating Competition in the Central Arctic Ocean, Hudson Institute