So the news broke yesterday that the salary cap will rise to $56.7 million next season (which means the floor is higher than the ceiling was coming out of the lockout, a scary thought for U.S.-based small markets). It means that, for the teams with owners willing to spend it, there is more cash to be tossed around. With that in mind, here is a quick glance at where the Caps are right now with each player signed and their expected cap number (in millions) for this season.
*Expected cap number with bonuses added in
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin, 9.538
Michael Nylander, 4.875
Alexander Semin, 4.600
Chris Clark, 2.633
Viktor Kozlov, 2.500
Nicklas Backstrom, 2.400*
Donald Brashear, 1.200
Matt Bradley, 1.000
Tomas Fleischmann, .725
Chris Bourque, .633
David Steckel, .512
Quintin Laing, .487
Ben Clymer, .250
Total = 31.353
DEFENSEMEN
Tom Poti, 3.500
Brian Pothier, 2.500
Karl Alzner, 1.675*
Milan Jurcina, .881
Jeff Schultz, .750
Sami Lepisto, .700
John Erskine, .537
Total = 10.543
GOALTENDERS
Brent Johnson, .812
Daren Machesney, .493
Total = 1.305
TEAM TOTAL = 43.201
That is a full roster of players under contract. Now, obviously these are not the 21 guys the Caps are going to war with in October. So let’s re-work this with what the roster might actually look like on opening night. The Caps can carry 23 players, but because of the pending cap crunch don’t be shocked if they only carry 21 or 22. This is important for a couple of reasons.
One, unless another move is made Alzner or Lepisto and possibly both are not making the team (if Green and Morrisonn are re-signed, of course). George McPhee said at the draft that he only wants to carry seven defensemen this season. With Green and Mo, there are nine under contract with Alzner and Lepisto being the two that don’t have to clear waivers. If Pothier can’t play, then they are down to eight. Obviously if Alzner is as advertised, the Caps could make room for him by cutting/trading Jurcina or Erskine, but that’s an extra million bucks they might not want to spend.
Two, someone (or two if everybody comes back) in the forward ranks isn’t making the team either. Candidates would include Laing (will he clear waivers after last season?), Fehr (unlikely, but doesn’t have to go through waivers), Fleischmann (don’t think the Caps want to cut bait with him months after giving him a two-year deal) and maybe even Steckel (if Fedorov re-signs they will have a glut of centers, he would more likely be traded than put through waivers/sent down) or Gordon if the Caps don’t like his new salary.
Also remember the salaries count against the cap on a day-by-day basis, so the longer the Caps can go with only 20 or 21 guys on the roster, the more room that might leave for a trade deadline addition.
Here is what the 23-man roster could like (but again, I don’t expect the Caps to carry 23 guys). And because it is fun to do, let’s speculate on the salaries of the free agents.
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin, 9.538
Michael Nylander, 4.875
Alexander Semin, 4.600
Chris Clark, 2.633
SERGEI FEDEROV, 2.500
Viktor Kozlov, 2.500
Nicklas Backstrom, 2.400*
BROOKS LAICH, 1.750
Donald Brashear, 1.200
Matt Bradley, 1.000
ERIC FEHR, .985
BOYD GORDON, .875
Tomas Fleischmann, .725
David Steckel, .512
Ben Clymer, .250
New total = 36.343
DEFENSEMEN
MIKE GREEN, 5.250 (more on him in an upcoming post)
Tom Poti, 3.500
Brian Pothier, 2.500
SHAONE MORRISONN, 1.750
Karl Alzner, 1.675*
Jeff Schultz, .750
John Erskine, .537 (I think Jurcina is the odd man out in this scenario, unless there is an injury or Alzner isn’t ready)
New total = 15.962
GOALTENDERS
CRISTOBAL HUET, 5.750
Brent Johnson, .812
New total = 6.562
NEW TEAM TOTAL = 58.867
Obviously, that is too much. Subtracting Pothier’s salary and putting Jurcina’s back in gets that figure down to about $57.3 million. Shedding one more forward does the trick of getting down to the cap, and there is some cushion involved for teams with the rookie bonuses. The point of this whole exercise is, the Caps could be a lot closer to the ceiling than some people might have expected. Obviously, I might be a bit high with some of these estimated salaries (although an offer sheet might make the guess on Green too low). I think the moral of the story is if Green and Huet end up combining to cost $11 million-plus, then Fedorov might not be a luxury this team can afford unless he or a couple of the other RFAs are willing to take a little less than what I have guessed here.
