Cleveland Ohio’s Cuyahoga County is a deep blue area President Barack Obama will more than likely pick up on Tuesday as votes are tallied Real Clear Politics pointed out recently:
And in Cuyahoga, Democrats count 345,000 voters, and Republicans count about 126,000. Overall, as of Oct. 1, some 916,000 Cuyahoga residents were registered to vote. What’s more, 30 percent of the county is African-American, whereas just 12.4 percent of the state is.
In the 2010 governor’s race, Democrat Ted Strickland lost narrowly to Republican John Kasich. But Strickland outperformed Kasich in Cuyahoga, 251,000-149,000, giving him a cushion of more than 100,000 votes there alone.
Four years ago, Obama more than doubled up on John McCain in Cuyahoga, winning 458,000 votes to the Republican’s nearly 200,000. How telling was this margin? Obama won the entire state by a smaller number of votes (206,830) than he won the county by (258,542).
Early voting in Cuyahoga County ended as of 2pm on Monday and turnout numbers have already been sent to county parties throughout the state. Although Cuyahoga County will go the president’s way, just by pure party registrations, early and absentee voting numbers coming from the Cuyahoga County Republican Party should cause Democrats state wide and nationally to be concerned in terms of GOP enthusiasm in Democratic strongholds.
“What we have seen, as of this morning, early voting [in Cuyahoga County] shows an additional 17,000 Republicans over what we saw in 2008 and the number of Democrats voting provisionally is less than what it was in 2008, so the net is about a 30,000 vote swing,” said Doug Magill, Cuyahoga County Republican Party spokesman, on Monday evening.
Essentially, according to Mr. Magill, Republicans were outnumbered in Cuyahoga in early voting in 2008 4.1 to 1. In 2012 Republicans are only outnumbered 2.7 to 1 in early and absentee voting in the heavy Democratic County. “In Cuyahoga County that’s significant,” he said.
Here are some numbers Mr. Magill cited to think about:
In 2008 Obama received 72 percent of the absentee and early voting in Cuyahga County for a total of 187,000 votes. McCain received 28 percent of the 2008 Cuyahoga County absentee and early voting. In 2012, absentee and early voting now is 128,000 Democrats versus 145,000 from 2008.
However, 47,000 Republicans turned out to vote early or absentee this year in Cuyahoga as opposed to the 2008 GOP turnout in the county, which was 34,000. “So that’s the swing—17,00 plus about 13,00. Actually, it’s about 30,000 and independents are down from 2008,” Magill said.
What the total means is that Democrats are at 55% of their absentee and early voting in Cuyahoga County than what they were in 2008.
Mr. Magill believes the Republican turnout in his county has mush to do with the ground work from local party staffers and volunteers.
“We made 15 to 20 times more calls than we did in 2008. These are our victory centers. We have 4 victory centers operational right now and the volunteers are really hitting the phones hard. From the number of signs you see to the number of bumper stickers you see to the people you talks to we just attract a much greater Republican turnout than there was in 2008,” Magill stressed.
Although polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual tie, Mr. Magill says the polls are using an outdated 2008 model.
“We know that the polls that are shown to us have always have a plus 6 to a plus 8 Democratic advantage but that’s because in 2008 there was. That’s not the case today. The enthusiasm is on our side so we’re going to be plus R. I don’t think plus D is going to be what it was. I think it’ll be less.”