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Threat Status for Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump is expected to announce a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia Wednesday afternoon.

… Foreign Affairs Correspondent Vaughn Cockayne has a new video examining the uncertainty over the whereabouts of Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

… Japanese leaders are expressing unease that a Chinese Luyang III-class guided-missile destroyer carried out live-fire exercises off Japan’s southernmost island of Okinotori.

… Ukraine is now fully in the throes of a difficult overhaul of its top military brass.

… The Kyiv Post has a deep dive on newly appointed top military commander Mykhailo Drapaty, a 43-year-old who has served his entire career in the country’s armed forces.

… The Iran war has cost American taxpayers $37.5 billion, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday.

… Sen. Deb Fischer, Nebraska Republican, told Mr. Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine that the U.S. is “running out of time” on replenishing munitions expended during the war.

… Congo’s Ebola outbreak has now killed nearly 1,000 people.

… And U.S. lawmakers are frustrated with Nigeria’s limited success protecting Christians from Islamic terror.

A U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal could have pivotal impact

In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2021. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP, File) ** FILE **

The Trump administration signaled Wednesday morning that it may announce a major deal to allow Saudi Arabia to develop a nuclear program. The development comes a day after Mr. Trump threatened to bomb Iran-backed Houthi militants if they try to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia — a key U.S. security partner and the primary Sunni Muslim Arab rival to Shiite Persian Iran.

A U.S.-Saudi agreement could have a pivotal impact on the wider security dynamics underpinning the ongoing war in the Middle East. The BBC reports the agreement could be worth billions of dollars to the American companies that would be involved in building a Saudi facility to produce enriched uranium, which can be used as fuel for power plants but also to make nuclear bombs.

Mr. Trump on Tuesday threatened to bomb the Houthis, who control much of southwestern Yemen and maintain effective command over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Saudis have relied on their East-West Pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, redirecting oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu — a route now facing the Houthi threat.

Rubio warns Asian leaders to be wary of Iran's moves

From left, East Timor's Foreign Minister Bendito dos Santos Freitas, Vietnam Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Cambodia's Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn join hands during the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with the United States on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Pasay city, Metro Manila, Philippines Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (Brendan Smialowski/Pool Photo via AP)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Asian leaders Wednesday during a visit to the Philippines that if Iran is allowed to control and collect shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, a “very dangerous precedent” will have been set that other authoritarian powers could replicate in geopolitical friction ports elsewhere around the world. 

He made the assertion in opening remarks at the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Manila. Top diplomats from the U.S., China, Russia and several other countries are gathered in the Philippine capital for the summit. 

The Associated Press reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters Moscow would like to see a quick settlement between the U.S. and Iran. “There are those eager to incite each party to keep the conflict going,” Mr. Lavrov said. “But we aren’t one of those.”

State Department: Havana promoting communism in U.S., report warns

A member of the U.S. Senate delegation wears a crossed flag pin representing the U.S. and Cuban national flags, at a press conference in Havana, Cuba, Saturday, June 27, 2015. (AP Photo/Desmond Boylan)

Cuba’s communist regime has been engaged in a long-term campaign of subversion in the United States through espionage and support for radicals and leftists, including black-clad Antifa street thugs and the organizers of riots in the wake of the death of George Floyd, according to a new State Department report

Cuban intelligence “infiltrated the highest reaches of the U.S. government, recruited and cultivated generations of American activists [and] backed an unprecedented wave of left-wing terrorism on American soil,” states the report, which asserts that Cuban operatives today are inside hundreds of front groups, activist organizations, solidarity centers and ideological nongovernment and nonprofit networks.

The report, titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism” and based on secret intelligence and open sources of information, also asserts that Cuba’s intelligence service continues to have “scores of still-unidentified agents” inside the U.S. government.

Japan’s defense minister calls for debate on nuclear arms

Japan's Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi delivers a speech during the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's annual defense and security forum, in Singapore, Sunday, May 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim)

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, one of the higher-profile members of the hawkish Cabinet of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is overseeing an expansion of defense ties across the Indo-Pacific amid growing Japanese concerns about China’s aggressiveness and America’s reliability. He is now also urging his countrymen to openly debate whether nuclear weapons have a role in Japan’s defense.

In comments last weekend, Mr. Koizumi cited France and Finland. He said France is expanding and dispersing its nuclear arsenal and offering protection to NATO allies. Finland last month voted to lift its ban on hosting nuclear weapons on Finnish soil, allowing allied nuclear arms for defensive purposes. China reacted harshly on Monday, saying that if Japanese authorities “stick to their miscalculations on the nuclear issue,” then the Japanese people “will eventually pay a heavy price.”

For decades after World War II, pacifist Japan was reluctant to speak or move forthrightly on defense. Since a reinterpretation of its constitution in 2014-2015, however, Japan has been beefing up its offensive assets, including acquiring F-35 carriers and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Now it is expanding defense and defense industrial relationships beyond traditional ally Washington.

Opinion: Defense companies should not have the Pentagon as a shareholder

Pentagon owning shares in defense military companies illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Jed Babbin, a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and contributing editor for The American Spectator, takes issue with the recent revelations that the U.S. government, “through the Department of Defense, has purchased stock in more than 20 companies, including leaders in artificial intelligence and rare-earth mining.

“The government has not yet asserted ownership of any of these companies, but such nationalization could be only a step away,” Mr. Babbin writes in his column for The Times. “The problem is that the U.S. acquisition system is based on competition. Under the laws and regulations governing American procurement, offers must be solicited and evaluated in ‘full and open’ competition before a contract is awarded.

“So, how is the government supposed to decide between offerors if it owns a stake in one of the companies?” Mr. Babbin writes. “It cannot — and corruption is sure to follow.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 22-29 — Project Convergence-Capstone 6, U.S. Army

• July 22 — Expanding U.S. Investment in the Western Hemisphere, Atlantic Council 

• July 23 — The Path Ahead for U.S.-South Korea Shipbuilding, Stimson Center

• July 30 — U.S.-North Africa Relations in an Era of Strategic Disruption, Stimson Center

Aug. 4-5 — 2026 Air Force & Space Force Procurement Conference, American Defense Alliance

• Aug. 5-6 — Border Security & Intelligence Summit, Defense Strategies Institute

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